US Strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Qatar Pushes to Broker a Deal

US Navy ships transit the Strait of Hormuz. (US Navy photo)

Overnight US strikes on Iranian missile positions — and an Iranian claim to have downed three American drones — have raised the stakes around the Strait of Hormuz, just as Qatari mediators make a renewed push for a US–Iran agreement.

The United States carried out strikes overnight on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, hitting surface-to-air missile positions that Washington says had been used against US assets. Iranian state media reported five explosions in rapid succession on the island. US officials described the operation as defensive and limited, insisting it did not signal a resumption of major combat operations.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had downed a US MQ-9 drone and two Lucas drones in the skies near the strait. The claim underlines how close the two sides remain to a wider confrontation — even as diplomacy accelerates behind the scenes.

Mediation moves into high gear

Qatar has intensified its mediation between Tehran and Washington. Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Monday night carrying a draft US–Iran deal that has been under negotiation for about eight days. Both sides are now reviewing the proposals put forward by the mediators, and feedback is expected within roughly 36 hours. Qatar says intensive joint regional efforts are under way to avoid a fresh escalation.

The diplomatic push comes against a grim backdrop. The US–Israeli war on Iran began in late February, and a US naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz followed after earlier talks stalled. In parallel, Iran and Saudi Arabia are holding their own talks on new regional security arrangements that would exclude foreign military involvement, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Tehran sets its terms

Iran insists that its conditions must be met before the Strait of Hormuz can reopen. Tehran's demands include waiving oil sanctions, ending the US naval blockade and releasing frozen Iranian funds. Only after those conditions are fulfilled, Iranian officials say, can nuclear talks begin — and Tehran says it will not accept what it calls Washington's "excessive demands."

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the American response to Iran's demands "was not convincing," and that Washington must fully and explicitly address Tehran's seven conditions. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran had delivered a "strong and rational response," and that the ball was now in Washington's court.

Mixed signals from Washington

President Donald Trump has sent conflicting signals within the space of a day. On Monday he voiced optimism about the talks and raised doubt that he would follow through on a threatened resumption of strikes after Tuesday's midterm elections. On Tuesday, however, he told Fox News that while he was not looking to kill lots of people, "if we have to, we'll have to." Vice President JD Vance has also expressed optimism that an agreement can be reached.

Even so, the military build-up continues. Reuters reported that US cargo aircraft have been arriving at bases in Israel, and that the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and its strike group were tracked near the Strait of Malacca. Reuters also reported that US officials say the military has prepared plans for strikes against Iran after the midterms, with the final decision resting with the president.

Oil markets swing with the headlines

Energy markets are moving with every headline. Oil prices dropped more than 7 percent on Monday, as hopes grew that diplomacy was progressing, then rose about 1.3 percent on Tuesday as the strikes and the stalemate over Tehran's conditions took centre stage. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy waterways, and its closure remains a major risk hanging over global fuel supplies.

What to watch next

The next 36 hours may prove decisive. If the feedback from Tehran and Washington narrows the gaps in the draft deal, the mediation could move toward a formal agreement and a reopening of the strait. If it does not, attention will turn to whether Washington resumes larger strikes after the midterms — and how Tehran responds.